Hype Cycles

Bei der Recherche nach aktuellen Marktinfos und Trendeinschätzungen gerade eine interessante Definition von Hype bzw. Hype Cycles gefunden. Auch im Lichte der Diskussion Sind Blogs der naechste Hype? ganz interessant. Siehe auch Hype! Hype? bei Blogosfear.

Bei Gartner sieht man den Begriff Hype ganz sachlich:

What is a Hype Cycle?

A Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies.

Since 1995, Gartner has used Hype Cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies ...

What are the 5 phases of a Hype Cycle?

1. "Technology Trigger"
   The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
   In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
   Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
   Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"
   A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Das was auch im deutschen Sprachraum oft abwertend Hype genannt wird, ist ein Trend, der es nur bis Phase 3 schafft. (Blogs und RSS-Feeds sind m.E. im Moment irgendwo bei Phase #2.)